地方政府人才引进政策促进了区域创新吗？——来自准自然实验的证据

高技能人力资本对于我国经济转型的重要性不言而喻。本文以2009—2012年间39个城市集中出台的地方人才引进政策为准自然实验,采用多期政策的双重差分法,结合机制分析和异质性分析,探究了人才政策出台前后区域创新能力的变化及其背后的机制和深层次原因,并分析政策效应在不同的地区营商环境、科教事业投入力度、知识产权保护程度下的差异。本文主要结论包括,地方人才引进政策总体上提高了当地的专利授权总量和专利价值总量;显著增加了研发投入的规模,但创新效率没有得到明显提升;在营商环境较差的地区,政策的效应侧重于提高专利数量,营商环境较好的地区则侧重于提升专利价值;在科教投入力度本身就很大的地区,政策效果较小,在科教投入弱的地区效果会更明显;在知识产权保护程度弱的地区,政策效果更多地表现为提高专利数量,保护程度强的地区,则侧重于提升专利价值。上述结论对地方政府优化人才激励政策、实施创新驱动发展战略具有一定的政策启示。     

BEYOND THE STARS

It is frequent to hear in economic seminars or read in academic papers that an effect is economically significant or economically important. Yet, the economic literature is vague on what economic importance means and how it should be measured. In this paper, I show that existing measures of economic importance are flawed and misused. I derive a new metric that measures, in percentage terms, the contribution of each explanatory variable to deviations in the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. As an illustration, the method is applied to study the determinants of migration and the determinants of fertility.     

多层级视角下京津冀科技创新政策府际关系研究

府际关系协调有利于实现创新资源、要素的有效汇聚与整合，进而提升政策有效性。以京津冀为例，构建中央-地方多层级府际关系模型，分析中央政策主体合作网络特征与政策扩散特征、地方政策主体合作网络特征与政策执行特征的相关性。研究发现，中央政府部门间形成了以科技部为核心的核心—边缘网络结构特征；北京市政府部门间呈现出以中关村科技管理委员会为核心的核心-边缘网络结构特征；天津市政府部门间呈现出以天津市科学技术委员会为核心的星型网络结构特征；河北省则没有形成稳定的网络关系。中央政策主体合作网络中的度中心性与政策扩散广度具有相关性；地方政策主体合作网络中介中心性、度中心性与政策执行强度具有相关性。     

Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s fiscal imbalance and public debt. To test for sustainability of the fiscal imbalance, the study applies a symmetric ARDL (autoregressive distributive lag) technique to estimate a government intertemporal budget constraint. And to test for sustainability of public debt, it applies an asymmetric ARDL technique to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which allows for differential responses in the primary budget balance depending on whether shocks to regressors are positive or negative. Annual data for the period 1961–2018 are used in the estimations. The results indicate that Sri Lanka’s fiscal management is inconsistent with strong form sustainability, which requires that expenditures not grow faster than revenues. However, estimation of the fiscal reaction function finds robust evidence for fiscal policy asymmetries. Evidence emerges that Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy stance is procyclical with strong stabilization tendencies in economic expansions that are not sustained in contractions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities are found to pursue fiscal consolidation, thus suggesting weak form sustainability.     

知识产权保护、进口贸易与创新型领军企业创新

本文首先从理论上分析了知识产权保护通过进口贸易影响企业创新的作用机制,随后,利用中国海关贸易数据与中国工业企业数据,实证分析了知识产权保护对企业创新的影响,并检验了知识产权保护通过进口贸易影响企业创新的作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)知识产权保护水平提高,能够显著促进创新型领军企业的创新。(2)从影响机制来看,知识产权保护水平提高,能够显著提升民营企业、专利密集型行业企业以及出口企业的进口规模,进而促进创新;能够显著提升民营企业和专利密集型行业企业的进口产品种类,进而促进创新;能够显著提升出口企业的进口产品质量,进而促进创新。中国正处在实施创新驱动发展战略的重要阶段,应重视并充分发挥知识产权保护与进口贸易对我国企业创新的促进作用。     

政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。     

A mechanisms-based explanation of nutrition policy (dis)integration processes in Uganda

Many African governments have recently invested in strengthened nutrition policy integration to address malnutrition; as a step towards realising the targets of the Sustainable Development Goal 2. Previous studies have identified various factors that enable or constrain how nutrition integration occurs across policy sectors. However, the explanatory value of these studies has remained relatively limited, as the causal processes through which independent variables affect policy outcomes remain unelucidated. This paper addresses this gap by applying a causal mechanisms approach to investigate the processes that explain observed patterns of nutrition policy (dis)integration in different ministries in Uganda. We employed a process-tracing research design to reconstruct the context-mechanism configurations that explain the observed patterns of nutrition integration in Uganda between 2000 and 2017. Data was collected from interviews with 34 respondents, various policy and programming documents, and a focus group discussion. Our analysis reveals that increased nutrition policy integration is explained by four causal mechanisms: (1) international policy promotion; (2) issue promotion by international actors; (3) issue promotion by domestic policy entrepreneurs; and (4) instrumental policy learning. Conversely, two mechanisms led to policy disintegration: (1) leadership contestation; and (2) turf wars. All mechanisms proved activated by configurations of contextual conditions that were time- and organisation-specific. This study showed how a mechanisms approach can provide a more refined understanding of policy successes and failures in nutrition governance. Whereas integration-fostering mechanisms cannot be automated, both government and international actors working to scale up investments in nutrition need to consider and invest in the contextual conditions that allow for sustained nutrition policy integration and, ultimately, a more effective delivery of nutrition services. These include developing leadership for nutrition at different governance levels, domestic ownership and integration-fostering capacity, and supporting policy-oriented learning.     

能效改善与能源节约：助力还是阻力

研究目标：测算中国分行业的能源回弹效应与综合能耗系数。研究方法：通过编制含能源实物流量的价值型能源投入产出可比价序列表，测算出能源回弹效应与综合能耗系数，结合行业综合能耗情况分析了能源回弹效应的行业异质性。研究发现：各行业在能耗方面表现迥异，能源回弹效应也存在典型的行业异质性；中国整体经济能源回弹程度并不高，能效改善可以有效节约能源，但整体经济低能源回弹的表象也掩盖了部分行业能源效率无改善和高能耗行业高能源回弹的事实。研究创新：从系统与结构的视角审视了行业的综合能耗情况，并给出了一种基于能源投入产出表的能源回弹效应计算方法。研究价值：有助于提出整体经济结构优化与节能减排的行业政策。     

SKILLS MISMATCH: CONCEPTS,MEASUREMENT AND POLICY APPROACHES

The term skills mismatch is very broad and can relate to many forms of labour market friction, including vertical mismatch, skill gaps, skill shortages, field of study (horizontal) mismatch and skill obsolescence. In this paper, we provide a clear overview of each concept and discuss the measurement and inter‐relatedness of different forms of mismatch. We present a comprehensive analysis of the current position of the literature on skills mismatch and highlight areas which are relatively underdeveloped and may warrant further research. Using data from the European Skills and Jobs Survey, we assess the incidence of various combinations of skills mismatch across the EU. Finally, we review the European Commission's country‐specific recommendations and find that skills mismatch, when referring to underutilized human capital in the form of overeducation and skills underutilization, receives little policy attention. In cases where skills mismatch forms part of policy recommendations, the policy advice is either vague or addresses the areas of mismatch for which there is the least available evidence.     

金融服务开放与制造业企业出口产品质量:影响机制与经验证据

文章从理论上分析了金融服务开放影响制造业企业出口产品质量提升的动态演变过程，并利用2004-2013年中国金融服务进出口和中国工业企业数据对理论推演进行验证。结果表明：金融服务开放显著促进了制造业出口产品质量升级，且金融服务引进来对制造业企业出口产品质量提升的作用略大于金融服务走出去所产生的作用；从不同贸易方式、不同衡量指标、不同企业所有制等方面对此进行检验均证实了金融服务开放对制造业出口产品质量升级的正向作用；影响机制检验和扩展分析显示，创新效应、金融服务"引进来"对"走出去"的推动、垂直专业化效应和本地吸收效应影响着金融开放对企业出口产品质量升级的作用。文章的研究发现有助于为进一步扩大金融服务开放来推动制造业高质量发展提供有价值的政策依据。